En proposant de sortir le délit d’apologie du terrorisme du Code pénal et de réintégrer l’infraction dans le droit de la presse, La France insoumise a déclenché une polémique, fin 2024. Pourtant, dénoncer les abus judiciaires de cette loi et chercher à mieux protéger la liberté d’expression n’est pas forcément illégitime. Analyse.
Jean-Marie Le Pen est mort, mardi 7 janvier, à l’âge de 96 ans. Président du Front national à partir de 1972, il n’obtient de résultats significatifs qu’après l’accession de la gauche au pouvoir en 1981, avant de se qualifier au second tour de l’élection présidentielle en 2002. Son discours porte quasi exclusivement sur l’immigré, rendu responsable du chômage, de l’insécurité et de la perte d’identité nationale.
“I am a farmer, an engineer, a businessman, a planner, a scientist, a governor, and a Christian,” Jimmy Carter said while introducing himself to national political reporters when he announced his campaign to be the 39th president of the United States in December 1974.
La réélection de Trump le propulse de nouveau à la tête de la première puissance militaire mondiale. Sa future administration en matière de défense, comme pour d’autres domaines, risque une politisation accrue qui affaiblira ses institutions ainsi que le rôle des États-Unis dans l’espace mondial. Les positions controversées de son premier mandat prendront une tournure plus radicale encore, comme le laisse présager la nomination controversée de Pete Hegseth à la tête du Pentagone.
On Boxing Day 2004, an earthquake in the Indian Ocean near Indonesia set off a tsunami which killed almost 250,000 people. It was the deadliest natural disaster this century, and was probably the deadliest tsunami in human history.
François Bayrou a finalement dévoilé son gouvernement. Sur le fond, pas de grandes différences avec la ligne de son prédécesseur. Sur la forme, en revanche, des distinctions se dessinent, avec une volonté de se détacher de l’Élysée et de mettre l’accent sur l’autorité, au détriment des volets sociaux et économiques. Décryptage avec Mathias Bernard, historien de la politique.
Throughout the 2024 election cycle, reproductive rights were an electoral vulnerability for Donald Trump. Though popular with the Republican base, his appointment of antiabortion judges gave serious pause to many key voting blocs, including undecided young men.
Les politiques d’attractivité de l’enseignement supérieur se heurtent à des paradoxes qui nuisent à l’accueil des étudiants internationaux. Les mesures, comme l’augmentation des frais d’inscription pour les étudiants non européens, combinées aux restrictions migratoires, créent un environnement souvent décourageant pour ces étudiants, qui sont pourtant au cœur de la stratégie d’internationalisation de la France.
Avec le procès historique des viols de Mazan, la question d’une nouvelle définition du viol, incluant l’absence de consentement de la victime, est relancée en France. Cette idée, portée par de nombreuses législations à l’étranger, oppose les tenants d’un statu quo aux partisans d’une ouverture de la loi à cette donnée subjective qu’est le consentement. Les clés pour comprendre le débat.
20 tahun sudah Aceh pulih dari tsunami yang menimbulkan duka mendalam bagi Indonesia, khususnya para penyintas. Dalam periode yang berdekatan, Aceh juga berusaha bangkit setelah didera konflik antara Gerakan Aceh Merdeka dan pemerintah selama puluhan tahun.
Emmanuel Macron vient de nommer François Bayrou premier ministre, suite à la censure du gouvernement Barnier du 4 décembre. Mais François Bayrou peut-il « durer » plus longtemps que son prédécesseur à Matignon ? Quelle sera la position du PS, des écologistes et des communistes, désormais plus ouverts à la possibilité d’une négociation ? Entretien avec le politiste Rémi Lefebvre.
Much has been made of the news that Reform has overtaken Labour in voting intentions in a recent poll. The poll, produced by market research agency Find Out Now, put the Conservatives on 26%, Reform on 24% and Labour on 23%.
Most recent polls show that Labour is still ahead of Reform, but only by a small margin. So while it is too early to say that Reform is beating Labour, it is nonetheless snapping at the heels of both Labour and the Conservatives. If this pattern of support continues up to the local elections in May next year, Reform is very likely to win a lot more councillors.
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These results reflect the fact that Labour has experienced a very short honeymoon in government, largely related to the unpopular decisions it has made, such as the means testing of the winter fuel allowance for pensioners, and Rachael Reeve’s budget that imposed higher taxes on businesses.
But how seriously should we take the findings of this single poll? Labour won by a landslide in the July election so to be overtaken already would be a significant development. It is worth examining how robust and therefore enduring these polling results are. One way of finding out is to look at votes rather than polls. We can investigate the extent to which the national parties were rivals as opposed to allies in the general election.
Vote Shares for Reform and Labour, 2024:
The chart shows the relationship between the vote shares for Reform and Labour in the 632 constituencies in Great Britain (Northern Ireland is excluded).
The summary line is flat, which means that the Labour vote was unaffected by the Reform vote across these constituencies. Labour did not lose seats to Reform in strong Labour areas which contain many working-class voters. If it had, then the summary line would slope upwards as the Labour vote share increased because Reform would be doing well at Labour’s expense. Reform undoubtedly won some votes from Labour, but not enough to make a difference to the party in its traditional strongholds.
This can be quantified by calculating the correlation between the vote shares for the two parties, which was negligible (-0.01). Correlations run from -1 to 1, with zero being no correlation at all and -1 being a perfect negative correlation – and 1 being a perfect positive correlation.
I’ve previously explained this relationship by looking at how Ukip, the ancestor of Reform, and the Conservatives were allies in the general election of 2017 rather than rivals. This is because the vote shares for both parties increased together, except in a few seats where support for them was very high. In this case, they were weak rivals.
This pattern was repeated in the 2024 general election as the chart below shows. The correlation between the Reform and Conservative vote shares was positive although rather weak (0.21). This means that Reform did better in traditionally safe Tory seats.
Vote Shares for Reform and the Conservatives, 2024:
This creates something of a puzzle. If Labour had no effect on the Reform vote and the Conservatives had a modest positive effect, where did much of the Reform vote come from? The answer is that it came from the two other national parties – the Liberal Democrats and the Greens.
The correlation between the Reform vote and the Liberal Democrat vote share was negative (-0.25) and the same was true for the Greens (-0.27). When the Liberal Democrats and Greens did well, the Reform vote was reduced which means that both parties were rivals to Reform.
The Liberal Democrats have a history of picking up protest votes, that is, voters who are disillusioned with both major parties and so support the traditional third party in British politics. These voters are not loyally attached to the party and so are quite willing to switch to another one in a subsequent election.
These correlations suggest that much of the support for Reform, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens was made up of protest voters in the 2024 election. They all did well because the protest vote has been growing over time as attachments to the two major parties have weakened. This has produced a much more fragmented party system in Britain than used to be the case.
Will this change?
What is likely to change the current polling, which puts Labour, the Conservatives and Reform close together in voting intentions? Tony Blair famously said that the priorities of his government were “education, education, education”. To turn this around Labour needs to prioritise “delivery, delivery, delivery” – something which is going to take time.
There are reasons to be optimistic that this can be done, however, and they relate to the three major shocks that have hit the economy over the last decade: Brexit, the pandemic and the war in Ukraine.
These were all what the unorthodox economist Nassim Taleb describes as very rare, highly disruptive “black swan” events. Brexit never happened before, a pandemic on the scale of COVID hasn’t happened since 1918, and the last time a major European war occurred was close to 70 years ago.
The probability that more of these will occur in the next few years is, therefore, quite low, which should give economies across Europe time to recover. With the right policies, economic growth in Britain can resume. Delivering this is the key to ensuring Reform’s lead is consigned to one solitary poll.
Paul Whiteley, Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.
Donald Trump’s victory in November’s US presidential election saw the US dollar strengthen. It surged to a one-year high within two weeks, and has since retained its strength against its major peers. His election has also again brought the prospect of US tariffs on imports, and attention has focused on the disruption to global trade that these may bring.
Au lendemain de la censure, Emmanuel Macron a voulu légitimer sa décision de dissolution de juin, montrant qu’il était soucieux de défendre ses décisions passées tout comme son bilan, qu’il ne souhaite pas voir détricoté. Il a aussi rappelé son souhait de convaincre certaines forces politiques de gouverner ensemble et de nommer un premier ministre pouvant échapper à une censure immédiate. Il affirme avoir « laissé le premier ministre gouverner, le Parlement légiférer. » Il s’est montré très sévère à l’égard des partis situés aux extrêmes de l’échiquier politique qui auraient organisé le désordre et le chaos, en ne pensant qu’à l’élection présidentielle et en organisant « un front anti-républicain ».
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